The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Student debt balances rebounded in the first quarter.

The United Kingdom: Construction activity is rebounding.

China: Hong Kong stocks have outperformed mainland shares year-to-date.

Commodities: China’s currency depreciation typically occurs alongside a rise in gold prices.

Energy: US prices at the pump are heading lower.

Equities: The ability of US firms to maintain strong margins continues to exceed expectations.

Food for Thought: Gender disparity in workplace culture perception based on Glassdoor reviews:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The sharp decline in the Citi Economic Surprise Index points to downside risks in Treasury yields.

The Eurozone: The ECB is on track to cut rates next month.

The composite April PMI index has confirmed the Eurozone’s return to growth.

Commodities: Weather derivatives have become very popular.

Equities: The S&P 500 equal-weight index has been underperforming the capitalization-weighted index, while small caps have been outperforming, marking an unusual trend.

Rates: How much would yields need to rise to wipe out a year’s worth of interest income?

Global Developments: The Suez Canal ship transit volume has deteriorated further.

Food for Thought: Battery manufacturing overcapacity:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Labor force participation held steady, with prime-age participation increasing slightly.

The Eurozone: French factory output declined in March.

Commodities: Here is a look at last week’s performance data.

Energy: The US oil rig count dipped below 500 again.

Equities: This chart shows the S&P 500 performance around the Fed’s last rate hike.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury note has been underperforming relative to previous trends around the Fed’s last rate hike.

Food for Thought: Global nuclear energy output:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM Manufacturing Index dipped back into contraction territory in April.

The United Kingdom: Home prices declined again last month.

Japan: The yen is rebounding following what appears to be the Bank of Japan’s second intervention in a week.

Emerging Markets: Chile’s economic activity eased in March from all-time highs.

Equities: The market liked what it heard from Apple, sending share prices higher after the close.

Rates: Historically, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined around FOMC days but has collectively risen outside of FOMC days.

Food for Thought: US births hit a multi-decade low.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Job openings declined sharply in March, indicating that labor market imbalances are continuing to ease. Per Powell’s comments, this suggests that the Fed’s tight monetary policy is reducing demand

Canada: The TSX materials sector has significantly outperformed its US peers over the past two months driven by the rally in gold and silver prices.

Cryptocurrency: Was the SEC right about potential liquidity issues with crypto ETFs? IBIT has been trading at a substantial discount to NAV.

Equities: Treasury yields matter again for the Magnificent 7 stocks.

Commodities: Cocoa futures tumbled another 11% on Wednesday.

Rates: Much of the pressure on Treasuries has occurred during overnight trading sessions.

Food for Thought: Financial sector cyberattacks:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The spread between consumer expectations and current conditions remains in recession territory.

The United Kingdom: Consumer credit experienced solid growth in March.

Japan: Japan’s housing starts have deteriorated.

Commodities: April was a good month for copper.

Equities: Major US indices held resistance at the 50-day moving average.

Food for Thought: UFO sightings:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Here is a look at Fed rate cut probabilities at this year’s FOMC meetings.

China: The S&P Global China Manufacturing PMI:

Commodities: Gold is trading at a premium on the Shanghai Exchange relative to the US-based Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and ETF holdings have diverged between the two markets.

Cocoa futures saw a sharp pullback on Monday.

Equities: In the current earnings season, EPS surprises have been the highest since 2021 (so far).

Global Developments:  Leading indicators continue to signal an acceleration in global factory activity.

Food for Thought:  Largest health insurers’ revenue as a share of US health spending:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The Fed’s next set of policy decisions will have a massive impact on the federal government’s interest expenses.

Europe: Speculative accounts (such as hedge funds) have rapidly shifted from betting on the British pound to positioning against it.

Japan: The yen was caught in a short squeeze this morning. After reaching 160, the dollar-yen rate plummeted toward 155, unraveling the overextended short-yen positions and carry trades that use the yen as a funding currency.

Commodities: Gold prices continue to outpace gold ETFs’ holdings.

Equities: Companies that missed estimates were punished more than usual in this earnings season.

Momentum is currently exposed to strong economic growth and high interest rates. The risk of a momentum reversal should remain low in the absence of a significant macro shift or geopolitical shock, according to BlackRock.

Credit: High-yield new-issue volume declined last week amid rising rates.

Food for Thought: China’s dominance of clean-tech supply chains:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Business investment expanded again.

The United Kingdom:  UK consumer confidence improved this month.

Japan: Flows into Japan-focused equity funds have surged in recent days.

Cryptocurrency: Major cryptos are down month-to-date, with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) underperforming top peers.

Commodities: Copper futures continue to surge.

Equities: Shares of tech giants surged in after-hours trading as the market responded positively to announcements from Alphabet and other major players.

Food for Thought: Cancer mortality rates:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Market rent levels have been outpacing the rent CPI.

China: Economists have been raising their GDP projections for 2024.

Equities: Retail investors are turning bearish, with the AAII bull-bear spread dipping into negative territory for the first time this year.

Rates: Longer-term rates are vulnerable to the Fed’s “higher for longer” policy.

Commodities: The market for semi-processed copper ore is currently facing exceptional scarcity, as traders and smelters are paying prices for copper ore that nearly match its processed value, suggesting a lack of readily available supplies

Energy: US crude oil stockpiles declined sharply last week (the market expected an increase). Inventory data for refined products was less bullish. Below are weekly changes.

The largest oil ETF saw record outflows this week.

Food for Thought: Wage growth by age:

Edited by William Villacis

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