The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Homebuilder sentiment declined this month.

The United Kingdom: Economists have upgraded their estimates for UK GDP growth this year.

Emerging Markets: The Chilean peso has been rallying with copper prices (chart shows USD weakening against CLP).

Energy: US natural gas futures are surging.

Equities: Retail investors have been moving in, driving up speculative stocks.

Food for Thought: Quarterly sales of Novo Nordisk’s weight loss drugs:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The Philly Fed’s regional manufacturing index experienced a pullback this month as new orders dipped back into contraction territory.

Europe: Container freight costs from Asia are climbing again.

Cryptocurrency: There was an uptick in short liquidations as BTC returned above $63K.

Commodities: Nickel prices continue to rebound.

Equities: The Dow crossed 40k for the first time on Thursday. Here are the contributions to its gains since reaching the 30k level.

Food for Thought: US birth rates by age group and ethnicity:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: After the “benign” CPI report and weak retail sales data, the market fully priced in two Fed rate cuts this year, perhaps in September and December.

Retail sales were weaker than expected last month, with the “core” measures unexpectedly declining. Consumers are becoming more discerning, which should help slow price increases.

The Eurozone: Euro-area GDP bounced in Q1.

Asian-Pacific: The market is no longer concerned about an RBA rate hike this year.

Emerging Markets: Foreign net purchases of EM equities and bonds dropped to the lowest level in six months amid a strengthening dollar.

Equities: Implied volatility indicators continue to sink.

Food for Thought: Aircraft deliveries:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: A higher percentage of firms saw labor costs as the most important problem.

The United Kingdom: The market continues to price two BoE rate cuts this year.

China: The offshore yuan volatility curve has steepened this year.

Equities: The Nasdaq Composite hit a record high.

Commodities: Copper prices hit a record high, breaking five dollars per pound for the first time.

Food for Thought: K-12 firearm incidents:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Negative economic surprises signal lower Treasury yields ahead.

Commodities: Cocoa futures took a massive hit on Monday.

It’s been a good month for milk futures.

Japan: JGB yields are surging, with the 30-year rate climbing above 2%.

Equities: The Reddit crowd’s “pump ‘n dump” activity is back.

The Eurozone: After months of persistent downgrades, economists have upgraded Germany’s GDP growth forecasts for this year (slightly).

Energy: Capital Economics expects OPEC+ production cuts will start to be unwound from July.

Food for Thought: A warm April:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Households are increasingly concerned about higher unemployment ahead, which often serves as a leading indicator for the unemployment rate.

Canada: Canada’s April employment gains were well above forecasts.

The probability of a BoC June rate cut dipped below 50% following the strong employment report.

China: Net aggregate financing was negative as net government debt issuance declined.

Commodities: Iron ore prices have sharply diverged from the rise in stocks at Chinese ports.

Credit: Is rising unemployment signaling wider high-yield spreads?

Food for Thought: Record earnings in the live-music industry:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Initial jobless claims jumped last week, sparking concerns over potential weaknesses in the labor market.

The United Kingdom: Speculative accounts are betting on a weaker pound in anticipation of the Bank of England’s impending rate cuts.

Emerging Markets: Mexico’s headline inflation increased last month, but the core CPI continues to ease.

Commodities: Gold is surging again.

Energy: This chart shows how conflicts impacting the Persian Gulf have impacted the oil price.

Equities: The Dow has been up for seven consecutive trading sessions.

Food for Thought: Robots in manufacturing:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

Europe: Riksbank cut rates for the first time since 2016, sending the krona lower.

Equities: VIX typically rises leading up to US elections and then declines

Credit: High-yield spreads appear too tight relative to Treasury market implied volatility.

Commodities: Funds have been rotating between softs and grains, pushing the correlation deeper into negative territory.

China: China’s real estate slump mirrors the US GFC experience.

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s recession deepens, with industrial production and construction activity down year-over-year.

Food for Thought: Comparison of wage growth for union and non-union workers in the private sector:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Student debt balances rebounded in the first quarter.

The United Kingdom: Construction activity is rebounding.

China: Hong Kong stocks have outperformed mainland shares year-to-date.

Commodities: China’s currency depreciation typically occurs alongside a rise in gold prices.

Energy: US prices at the pump are heading lower.

Equities: The ability of US firms to maintain strong margins continues to exceed expectations.

Food for Thought: Gender disparity in workplace culture perception based on Glassdoor reviews:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The sharp decline in the Citi Economic Surprise Index points to downside risks in Treasury yields.

The Eurozone: The ECB is on track to cut rates next month.

The composite April PMI index has confirmed the Eurozone’s return to growth.

Commodities: Weather derivatives have become very popular.

Equities: The S&P 500 equal-weight index has been underperforming the capitalization-weighted index, while small caps have been outperforming, marking an unusual trend.

Rates: How much would yields need to rise to wipe out a year’s worth of interest income?

Global Developments: The Suez Canal ship transit volume has deteriorated further.

Food for Thought: Battery manufacturing overcapacity:

Edited by William Villacis

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